Jay Evensen
  • Front Page
  • Opinions
  • Second Thoughts
  • Portfolio
  • Awards
  • About

Bombing Iran would unleash many more problems

10/3/2012

0 Comments

 
Picture
When protests broke out in Iran this week over the devaluation of the nation’s currency, Khosrow Semnani saw the possible start of a solution.

Change Iran from within and you have a better chance of ending its nuclear weapons program than you ever would from a military strike, he said.

That is, of course, easier said than done. Groups within Iran have tried this before, but the Arab

Spring seems always to wither under the foot of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

If anyone has the passion to move the United States and its allies to deal positively with Middle East’s most troubling nation, however, it is Semnani, a Salt Lake resident who came here from Iran virtually penniless in the late 1960s and has since amassed a fortune.

Semnani has several good reasons for his passion. For one, he still has siblings and other close relatives living in Tehran. For another, he has just authored a report that uses science and best evidence to put a human toll on what a military strike would mean.

Titled, “The Ayatollah’s Nuclear Gamble,” the report conservatively estimates that 70,000 people might be hurt or killed in one key site alone. And in a nation where “the historical record suggests poor disaster management and inadequate emergency preparation,” that casualty list could be magnified by a factor of 10.

These aren’t just numbers pulled out of a hat. As Semnani reminded me when we spoke about this, matters of radiation and nuclear fallout are right in his wheelhouse.

If you’ve heard of Semnani at all, chances are it is in connection with the radioactive waste repository he founded in Utah’s west desert many years ago. It was Envirocare when he owned it. Today it is EnergySolutions. Semnani himself has degrees in chemistry and physics, as well as an honorary Doctorate of Science degree from Southern Utah University.

He spent two years putting together the report, which was released at an opportune time. Only a few days ago, world leaders, including Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, met at the United Nations to argue over Iran, Israel, sanctions or worse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a forceful plea for immediate action, calling for a “red line” beyond which Iran should not be allowed to go.

There is talk of a strategic military strike, similar to what Israel did against the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981. No one — not the Iranians, the Israelis or the United States — is talking about the human toll such a strike would take.

No one but Semnani, that is. His report says the thought of such a strike being similar to Osirak is a fantasy. He calculates strikes against four nuclear facilities, estimating shift workers of between 3,500 and 5,500 at any one time, and resulting toxic chemical plumes that reach tens of thousands of civilians or more.

Attacking a uranium conversion facility at Isfahan and an enrichment plant at Natanz would unleash hydrofluoric acid that, quoting a scientist in the study, would make people “drown in their lungs.”

The report already has made a mark. Time Magazine featured it, as did the French publication Le Point. A BBC broadcast about it reached Iran where, Semnani told me, the regime managed to quickly stop access to it. Other reports, however, also have reached Iran, where people are hungry for information about a situation that might affect them.

I’m guessing most Americans share Semnani’s goal, which is to see Iran become free and democratic. Then, as he told me, the government would be more worried about meeting its people’s everyday needs than preserving power at the expense of the economy and public safety.

But Americans, he believes, need to envision the end goal and understand how best to get there.

“This is a nation of 75 million people,” he said of Iran. “You don’t want to lose those people. You don’t want to make them rally around the people making the bombs.”

That would happen if the U.S. unleashed death and mayhem, he said. It’s a position that makes good sense, but the trick is getting Iranians to change before Iran itself does something desperate and destructive to the rest of the world.
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

    Search this site


    Like what you read here?

      Please subscribe below, and we'll let you know when there is a new opinion.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    Picture

    The author

    Jay Evensen is the Opinion Editor of the Deseret News. He has more than 40 years experience as a reporter, editor and editorial writer in Oklahoma, New York City, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City. He also has been an adjunct journalism professor at Brigham Young and Weber State universities.

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012

    Categories

    All
    Campaign 2012
    Congress
    Crime
    Culture
    Iran
    Oil And Gas
    Poverty
    Steroids
    Taxes
    Utah
    Washington
    World Events
    World Events

    Links

    Deseret News
    Newslink
    Marianne Evensen's blog

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
Photos from jamesjoel, DOWN ESPAÑA, garethjmsaunders, University of Salford, Adam Jones, Ph.D. - Global Photo Archive, marcoverch, See-ming Lee 李思明 SML, edgarzunigajr, Theo K, ActuaLitté, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, Backbone Campaign, OIST (Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology), bradleygee, @sage_solar, sianiweston, makelessnoise, COD Newsroom, philozopher, Congressman George Miller, Jordi Bernabeu, edgarzunigajr, National Assembly For Wales / Cynulliad Cymru, simpleinsomnia, Mike Bonitz, Becker1999, manhhai, BiblioArchives / LibraryArchives, amira_a, Ken Lund, Bread for the World, r.nial.bradshaw, DearEdward, sinisterbluebox, denebola2025, thedoc31, ** RCB **, IQRemix, sandiegoduiattorney, Rob.Bertholf, Seluryar, Ben Sutherland, O.S. Fisher, Tony Webster, www.rubenholthuijsen.nl, Zachi Evenor, jonnwilliams, Lion Multimedia Production U.S.A., penjelly, jillccarlson, ADAM TAS IMAGES, UNMEER, DonkeyHotey, USDAgov, The Prime Minister's Office, Maicon Garcia, CountyLemonade, familymwr, Muffet, DonkeyHotey, tedeytan, KristineL761, penjelly, Leap Kye, sully213, NLNY, frankieleon, haven't the slightest, ljlandre, jalbertbowdenii, Rvs1966, Marion Doss, Vassilis Online, Dan Bock, Prestonbot, Frontierofficial, L. Bartha, educators.co.uk, Kelly Hunter, lindsayloveshermac, Michael.Jolley, dw_ross, Janitors, KAZVorpal, combusean, wuestenigel, apardavila, BodyWorn, MDGovpics, MHS Touchdown Club, JeepersMedia, Elvert Barnes, fred_v, CountyLemonade, mitchell haindfield, qbac07, David Holt London, Hoshi_sae, DonkeyHotey, aaronrhawkins, Ruth and Dave, CountyLemonade, Akademija Oxford, NASA Goddard Photo and Video, Chimpanz APe, huskyte77, GotCredit, sandiegoduiattorney, pacificpelican, streetsensedc, ell brown, Aaron Volkening, rgserapio, Asian Development Bank, paularps, ThoseGuys119, USDAgov, SIM USA, gnrklk, kthypryn, Zeitfixierer, vwcampin, regan76, frankieleon, Robert Couse-Baker, JoeInSouthernCA, SounderBruce, ThoseGuys119, CDC Global Health, Gage Skidmore, bunnicula, Fire At Will [Photography], Alexandre Prévot, Anth0ny Gale, vastateparksstaff, raphael.chekroun, Gerry Dincher, halseike, Prayitno / Thank you for (12 millions +) view, Gage Skidmore, infomatique, omarsalvatierragracida, Jerk Alert Productions, DonkeyHotey, Österreichisches Außenministerium, Photocapy, USDAgov, Taymaz Valley, jencu, Peter Krantz, WayShare, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, gruntzooki, CountyLemonade, makelessnoise, Denise Cross Photography, Roadgeek Adam, Tony Webster, amy.gizienski, faungg's photo, makelessnoise, FolsomNatural, Loimere, free pictures of money, Exile on Ontario St, EvinDC, ell brown, kamirao, coachphatty, Keith Allison, Raido Kaldma, avrene, Shutterbug Fotos, Elvert Barnes, Andrew Feinberg, Tony Webster, danxoneil, GrandGeneralStormCommando, MShades, Joe Frazier Photo, Kurdishstruggle, Omranic, SounderBruce, Mike Morbeck, Got Credit, Scudamore's Punting Company, wuestenigel, r.nial.bradshaw, NIAID, torbakhopper, 81disasters, gaobo, John Haro, Metro Atlanta Transit Productions, foundin_a_attic, Sten Dueland, tedeytan, CarbonNYC [in SF!], Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, marcn, pburka, BBurchell Photography, wbaiv, heyexit, Phillie Casablanca, Neil T, LendingMemo, Elsie esq., Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, n4rwhals, WalterPro4755, railsr4me, JLaw45, Janitors, USDAgov, MarkDoliner, educators.co.uk, wuestenigel, Franco Folini, JeanneMenjoulet&Cie, WayShare, Gamma Man, ninara, Bob Linsdell, H.KoPP, Vegar S Hansen Photography, denebola2025, Aircaft @ Gloucestershire Airport By James, Talusss, LaBellaVida, wwarby, easysentri, evelynquek, Ken Lund, rdmsf, North Charleston, t--h--s, denisbin, stcyshn, Tim Evanson, KAZVorpal, jurvetson, Simon_sees, thisisbossi, Photographing Travis, Phil Roeder, rich701, BPPrice, Kadano, quinnums, MoneyBlogNewz, wickenden, Lost Albatross, Bernd Thaller, Dave Snowden, CountyLemonade, au_ears, annikaleigh, magerleagues, MICOLO J Thanx 4 725k+ views, DonkeyHotey, progre, frankieleon, quinn.anya, Ryan Hallock, jsnsndr, abominable_eagle, Alan Cleaver, aflcio, CDC Global Health, NASA Goddard Photo and Video, jellygator, Jason M Parrish, USDAgov, Mystery in the mail, CJS*64 "Man with a camera", BenDibble, Joybot, JoeInSouthernCA, Pawel Maryanov, kennethkonica, mitchell haindfield, USDAgov, stevebott, Tyler Merbler, NCDOTcommunications, Exile on Ontario St, CBP Photography, jboe2009, WWYD?, liveoncelivewild, vaxomatic, Hunky Punk, tedeytan, GotCredit, Find Your Feet, Fibonacci Blue, Nicholas_T, Sergey Galyonkin, shock264, Georgie Pauwels, EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection, adifferentbrian, Seluryar, Riik@mctr, Andrew Moura, Michael.Jolley, kellybdc, inkknife_2000 (7.5 million views +), JeepersMedia, TheTruthAbout, Anton V. Larionov, HloomHloom, surreynews, {Guerrilla Futures | Jason Tester}, Secretary of Defense, The All-Nite Images, FootMassagez, You're In My Light (jerrysEYES), BLMOregon, Achilli Family | Journeys, Gerry Dincher, Ken Lund, Triple-green, yourbestdigs, Richard Elzey, Prestonbot, automobileitalia, Fora do Eixo, mary_gaston22, bk2000, AutrementDit Toronto., Elvert Barnes, dualdflipflop, mikemacmarketing, Hoshi_sae, torbakhopper, eburniche3, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, Abeeeer, Rob.Bertholf, Don Hankins, dannielleblumenthal-thinkbrandfirst, USDAgov, wuestenigel, Michael.Jolley, xiquinhosilva, Images_of_Money, OregonDOT, [email protected], gregfriese, SounderBruce, Kevin Johnston, Imagens Evangélicas, loop_oh, Magic Robot, funktionhouse, Gage Skidmore, Yosuke WATANABE, Mark Scott Johnson, F43r1x, ljlphotography, dsearls, David Holt London, ER24 EMS (Pty) Ltd., Images_of_Money, roberthuffstutter, monkeyz_uncle, zemistor, fred_v, DonkeyHotey, Obama-Biden Transition Project, CedarBendDrive, nestor galina, brianholsclaw, ryochiji, thisisbossi, Bright Meadow, richard winchell, Svadilfari, Edward M Johnson, NavaInstigator>>>, VarsityLife, ourbethlehem, Mr. T in DC, mwanasimba, Franco Folini, qnr, Dougtone, LightinkLibrarian, Obama-Biden Transition Project, The Official CTBTO Photostream, AstroSamantha, MoreSatisfyingPhotos.com, The Shopping Sherpa, The National Guard, craigdietrich, kamshots, ewan traveler, World Can't Wait, Gila Forest, kaffeeringe, jgurbisz, gruntzooki, Supermac1961, thievingjoker, Rod Waddington, PlayfulLibrarian, Philip Taylor PT, AlicePopkorn, Raido Kaldma, dan taylor, Cannabis Culture, surreynews, cliff1066™, Lars Plougmann, ANZ Cluster Munition Coalition, Tracy O, www.davidbaxendale.com, Rob Barrett Photography, BuzzFarmers, Political Graveyard, ojbyrne, US Mission Geneva, inkknife_2000, ubiquit23, Dan Bock, irrezolut, Frankie Roberto, Abode of Chaos, KOMUnews, John Pavelka, ElectronicFrontierFoundation, DonkeyHotey, carlos.a.martinez, pnoeric, ARTS, ubiquit23, Ken Lund, Tony Fischer Photography, brewbooks, || UggBoy♥UggGirl || PHOTO || WORLD || TRAVEL ||, blackplastic, cristee12, Shan213, OPEN Sports, Korean Resource Center 민족학교, cocoate.com, karola riegler photography, 4nitsirk, gnuckx, citizenactionny, rezsox, Jeffrey Beall, david_shane, Mrs. Gemstone, Erik Daniel Drost, stockicide, kadluba, joaquinuy, quinn.anya, ReneS, StockMonkeys.com, loop_oh, Steve Tolcher, Iqbal Osman1, kiwanja, rawmustard, Anthony J, El Bibliomata, International Information Program (IIP), Alex McClung, danielmoyle, "G" jewels g is for grandma, slgckgc, Images_of_Money, fivedollarones, x1klima, Gabriel GM, redjar, andertoons, gvgoebel, .Larry Page, Mr. T in DC, chintanamin, KatVitulano Photos, Ken Lund, adactio, shroncin, RobotSkirts, jeffschuler, VinothChandar, Joybot, neurollero, erasergirl, Matías Garabedian, viviandnguyen_, Digitale Gesellschaft, markhillary, mkphotonet, jgBeachcomber, jimbowen0306, Franco Folini, dno1967b, jurvetson, MargaretNapier, Elvert Barnes, muddum27, [email protected], Frontierofficial, dsearls, Shamanic Shift, Andrew Feinberg, Prayitno/ more than 2 millions views: thank you!, playerx, FSonne-pennstate73, The Daring Librarian, Vicky Hugheston, thenestor, Dusan Simonovic, David Reber's Hammer Photography, Justin A. Wilcox, Hollywood_PR, AR McLin, BrownGuacamole, Gage Skidmore, zache, Medill DC, wheat_in_your_hair, patricialow, Matt McGee, Bill Stanley, jerekeys, cletch, 6SN7, killrbeez, شبكة برق | B.R.Q, colros, Eric Kilby, kenteegardin, Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com, Erik Daniel Drost, Edward Dalmulder, chris friese, simone.brunozzi, Daquella manera, stevebott, stevendepolo, DFID - UK Department for International Development, justinmatthew21, a.drian, cudmore, Extra Ketchup, wbaiv, Loren Javier, swanksalot, CountyLemonade, indigoprime, Bryn Pinzgauer, Paul Robertson, Gruenemann, r.nial.bradshaw, Sam Beebe, Ecotrust, Fibonacci Blue, .jocelyn., RESchroeder, MoneyBlogNewz, matze_ott, swskeptic, peterolthof, Charleston's TheDigitel, Tony Webster, Themeplus, sDanOoO, CountyLemonade, Our Dream Photography (Personal), anitakhart, Waiting For The Word, Matt-Zimmerman, Dougtone