Last week I was in Central Florida, marveling at gas prices that hovered right around $2.03 a gallon at many stations. When I came home, my neighborhood convenience store was offering it for $2.68.

Let’s launch an investigation.

As silly as that sounds, it’s not out of line with how Americans tend to react to the supply-demand-politics-and-terrorism influenced ups and downs of the prices we pay at the pump.

put that in perspective, it was 6.1 percent back when real estate was going gangbusters in 2007, according to this story by Bloomberg Businessweek.

Combine that with house prices, which are much lower than in 2007, and we probably haven’t had such a good time to buy since your grandparents were looking for a nice place in the suburbs with a garage for their new ’57 Chevy.

All of which has me confused as to why the Fed, and its chairman Ben Bernanke, think they can move us to buy by pushing rates even lower.

On Thursday, the Fed announced it would begin buying mortgage-related debt to the tune of $40 billion a month until the economy begins to improve.

Investors immediately began buying mortgage bonds, which is bound to lower the yield. Expect interest rates to fall again.

The overriding goal of all this is to try to get the economy back to full employment. Without a job, you can’t afford a house at any price. But it’s impossible for the Fed to inject itself into the economy this way without creating winners and losers.

Oil markets liked the idea. The price of a barrel rose after the news, but the futures market fell. (Remember how futures investors once were the scapegoat for high gas prices?) Investors apparently think unrest in the Middle East and a drop in demand heading into the fall will keep prices from rising..

The stock market loved it. The Dow closed up 206.5 points.

The dollar didn’t like it. It fell to a seven-month low against the yen and a four-month low against the Euro.

If you were king for a day, what kinds of changes would you like to see in the economy? I’m guessing one of the things on your list might be higher interest rates on savings and investments.

Where is the incentive to put money into a bank savings account? Interest rates are so low you might as well use your mattress. The same goes for other savings instruments average people might use, such as CDs.

The Fed wants you to borrow and buy, not to save. But the lesson of the Great Recession was for average people not to over-extend themselves.

Experts are calling the Fed’s move aggressive and dramatic. It also seems pretty much like the last weapon in its arsenal. If cheap real estate at 1 or 2 percent interest doesn’t get the economy going or, worse, if it causes inflation, what then?

But I’m pretty sure Obama didn’t cause hurricane Isaac. Not unless the CIA has made some monumental scientific breakthrough it has kept secret. The hurricane shut down refineries along the Gulf Coast for a period of time. That disrupted markets and led to a jump in prices worldwide.

It’s also likely to be a temporary jump. Baring some other catastrophe, war or similar event, prices are expected to fall as summertime demand drops off, experts say.

If you’re trying to tie today’s rise in prices to the other team’s energy policies, the other team may throw that back in your face during tomorrow’s decline in prices.

In reality, even if Obama had approved more offshore permits and the Keystone Pipeline, those things would have affected long-term production, not short-term.

The nation’s highest gasoline prices, in real terms, came under the George W. Bush administration. That was a bubble that burst during volatile economic times, bringing the price down to about $1.84 in short order, and just in time for Obama to be elected. So now his political foes are comparing today’s prices to the time when Obama was elected.

For the most part, politicians are at the mercy of market forces on gas prices, and those are at the mercy of world events.

Long-term decisions are indeed important, however. On that score, the president hasn’t done much to ensure cheap energy for Americans, nor has he done much to spur a move toward cheaper alternatives, such as natural gas.

However, long-term issues don’t translate well into election-season bumper stickers — but those bumper stickers will look silly if prices begin to fall between now and November.

President Obama gave a speech back then saying the Republicans were certain to come up with a three-point plan, “Step one is drill, step two is drill, and step three is keep drilling. We've heard the same thing for 30 years.”

That was a nice caricature of the GOP. He, however, has been quick to blame speculators for pushing up prices, as if they get together and do so on a whim, and not as intelligent guesses that not only reflect world events but that help the industry prepare for future trends.

Where are those speculators now? Are they just off spending their money at fancy summer resorts? Can we expect them back in the fall to drive prices up again so they can save for Christmas expenses?

For their part, Republicans used the predictions to press for approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline from Canada to the Gulf Coast, as if its approval could immediately reduce prices.

The truth is much more complicated than politicians would have you believe. But that won’t stop them.

If you want to get dizzy, look at predictions of gas prices through the years. Way back in February of 2011, Shell Oil’s former president said we would be at $5 a gallon by the start of 2012.

Go back farther, a lot farther: Back in 1956, politicians sued 29 big oil companies, charging them with plotting to raise prices. A federal judge quickly dismissed that suit for the ridiculous stunt it was.

Earlier this year, tensions between Israel and Iran were sending prices up, as was an economy that seemed to be improving, leading to higher demand. But then tensions eased somewhat and the economy slowed down, and $5 gas became $3.45, the national average as of July 17.

The price of gas has fallen 6 cents or more on average during the past three weeks, but the experts say that may soon change. Or not.

So, what can we know for sure about the future of gas prices? Very little, except that Americans are now used to and comfortable with $3+ gas, and that we have no idea what the price will be a year from now.

The uncertainty ought to be enough to spur markets to shift toward natural gas, which enjoys huge reserves in the United States and would be cleaner and less susceptible to world events. Unfortunately, that won’t happen unless the price of gasoline really does hit $5 a gallon.

And if that happens before November, look for Romney and Obama to reload their ammunition.