On a recent Friday night, my wife and I were surprised to be seated immediately at our favorite Mexican restaurant. We have become used to at least a 30-minute wait on weekends.
We wondered, is this a sign of a pending recession?
Don’t laugh. That’s as good a question as any other out there. It may or may not be more reliable than the Hamburger Helper index.
Such is economic forecasting at a time when the government is shut down and the Bureau of Labor Statistics either is no longer publishing or is delaying key economic reports.
Hamburger helper, you say?
We wondered, is this a sign of a pending recession?
Don’t laugh. That’s as good a question as any other out there. It may or may not be more reliable than the Hamburger Helper index.
Such is economic forecasting at a time when the government is shut down and the Bureau of Labor Statistics either is no longer publishing or is delaying key economic reports.
Hamburger helper, you say?
When times get tough, Americans look for ways to stretch the food budget. That means stretching how far the ground beef goes for each meal.
Beginning with the inflation and stagnation of the 1970s, smart people began to notice a correlation between the state of the economy and sales of Hamburger Helper. Now, the New York Times reports, sales are up 14.5% for the year through August, which suggests bad economic times.
Of course, it could just have something to do with the product’s appearance on “The Bear,” a popular streaming television show.
In that case, let’s turn to the lipstick index. This is a theory that says people buy affordable luxury items, such as high-quality lipstick, to make themselves feel better during hard times. It’s kind of counter-intuitive, unless it coincides with a drop in truly expensive luxury items like designer handbags. Hard times means buying lesser luxury items as a form of retail therapy.
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management reports that revenues for high-quality perfumes and cosmetics were flat in the first quarter of 2025. But that’s OK. A lot of critics no longer like this index, anyway.
Perhaps they prefer the hair index. Earlier this year, hairdressers reported customers were opting for cheaper services or stretching out the time between visits. It’s hard to find more recent data on this, however, and there are so darned many salons.
The Washington Post suggests we might look at cardboard box production. After all, people buy a lot of stuff these days that is delivered to their front doors in boxes. Also, box production would thrive in a robust real estate economy where many people were moving from one house to another. It would suffer if houses were out of reach and money was tight.
“Box-makers have shuttered several mills this year, reducing capacity for the material,” the Post says, indicating trouble. Maybe.
Some economists used to look at pregnancy rates to take the nation’s economic temperature. People will postpone babies if they sense financial uncertainties. The problem with this, however, is that birth rates are on a long decline, stretching back to the great recession in 2007. Procreation is no longer tied to the economy.
Maybe you prefer indicators more directly related to economic factors. CNN Business reports that credit scores have fallen faster this year than at any time since the great recession. FICO scores dropped an average of 2 points nationwide this year, so far. As of a month ago, the news organization said, “FICO found a growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans.”
Or maybe we should listen to experts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said earlier this month that 22 states and the District of Columbia currently are in a recession, with 13 others “treading water.” Utah is listed as one of 15 states that are thriving and expanding.
That could change, he said, if New York and California change from “treading water” to recession.
“New York and California are struggling economically — and if things get worse in those states, they could take the whole U.S. economy down with them,” a Market Watch report said.
Which means things are probably about the same as a year ago, when I joked that a recession seemed to always be six months away.
Except, that was when the government was running at full strength and not delaying key reports on economic data. Back then, no one cared how fast Hamburger Helper was flying off the shelves or how many cardboard boxes were in production.
All of this was food for thought as a server delivered the chimichanga I had ordered in that half-empty restaurant last weekend. I couldn’t help noticing it cost a lot more than a year ago. Hmm.
Beginning with the inflation and stagnation of the 1970s, smart people began to notice a correlation between the state of the economy and sales of Hamburger Helper. Now, the New York Times reports, sales are up 14.5% for the year through August, which suggests bad economic times.
Of course, it could just have something to do with the product’s appearance on “The Bear,” a popular streaming television show.
In that case, let’s turn to the lipstick index. This is a theory that says people buy affordable luxury items, such as high-quality lipstick, to make themselves feel better during hard times. It’s kind of counter-intuitive, unless it coincides with a drop in truly expensive luxury items like designer handbags. Hard times means buying lesser luxury items as a form of retail therapy.
J.P. Morgan Wealth Management reports that revenues for high-quality perfumes and cosmetics were flat in the first quarter of 2025. But that’s OK. A lot of critics no longer like this index, anyway.
Perhaps they prefer the hair index. Earlier this year, hairdressers reported customers were opting for cheaper services or stretching out the time between visits. It’s hard to find more recent data on this, however, and there are so darned many salons.
The Washington Post suggests we might look at cardboard box production. After all, people buy a lot of stuff these days that is delivered to their front doors in boxes. Also, box production would thrive in a robust real estate economy where many people were moving from one house to another. It would suffer if houses were out of reach and money was tight.
“Box-makers have shuttered several mills this year, reducing capacity for the material,” the Post says, indicating trouble. Maybe.
Some economists used to look at pregnancy rates to take the nation’s economic temperature. People will postpone babies if they sense financial uncertainties. The problem with this, however, is that birth rates are on a long decline, stretching back to the great recession in 2007. Procreation is no longer tied to the economy.
Maybe you prefer indicators more directly related to economic factors. CNN Business reports that credit scores have fallen faster this year than at any time since the great recession. FICO scores dropped an average of 2 points nationwide this year, so far. As of a month ago, the news organization said, “FICO found a growing share of borrowers are falling behind on car loans, credit cards and personal loans.”
Or maybe we should listen to experts. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said earlier this month that 22 states and the District of Columbia currently are in a recession, with 13 others “treading water.” Utah is listed as one of 15 states that are thriving and expanding.
That could change, he said, if New York and California change from “treading water” to recession.
“New York and California are struggling economically — and if things get worse in those states, they could take the whole U.S. economy down with them,” a Market Watch report said.
Which means things are probably about the same as a year ago, when I joked that a recession seemed to always be six months away.
Except, that was when the government was running at full strength and not delaying key reports on economic data. Back then, no one cared how fast Hamburger Helper was flying off the shelves or how many cardboard boxes were in production.
All of this was food for thought as a server delivered the chimichanga I had ordered in that half-empty restaurant last weekend. I couldn’t help noticing it cost a lot more than a year ago. Hmm.
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