I’m flying overseas this weekend. Should I be worried about landing upside down or colliding with another aircraft — or should I be more worried about the drive from my house to Salt Lake International?
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes what he calls the availability heuristic. We learn through what is most readily available, and right now that is the seemingly endless reels of air crash videos, discussions and memes on social media, bolstered by the more reasoned, but still alarming, reports on television.
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman describes what he calls the availability heuristic. We learn through what is most readily available, and right now that is the seemingly endless reels of air crash videos, discussions and memes on social media, bolstered by the more reasoned, but still alarming, reports on television.
Looking at the videos, we tend to exaggerate the dangers. We imagine ourselves dangling upside down, held in by a tight seatbelt and wondering how to safely exit.
Looking at logic and statistics, however, the answer isn’t close. Stay airborne.
Although it’s been a relatively bad month or so for flying, it’s always a dicey time for driving. Sixty-seven people died in a collision between a commercial airliner and a military helicopter on Jan. 29. Exactly no one died Monday when an airliner overturned while landing in Toronto. Ditto in a collision of a Japan Airlines flight and a Delta plane on the ground in Seattle earlier this month.
By contrast, the U.S. Department of Transportation reports that in 2022, the last year for which complete statistics are available, 42,514 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the United States.
You have to go back to 2001 to find a commercial air disaster that killed more than the 67 who died last month in Washington, according to a comprehensive chart on Wikipedia. Meanwhile, using simple math, about 3,543 people on average died in car accidents every month in 2022.
But when you put it in a different light, the contrasts become starker. USAfacts.org reports that 796 people died in air travel over the U.S. between 2002 and 2022, including small aircraft accidents. By contrast, 552,009 died in passenger car and truck accidents during that time.
The fatality rate for air travel in 2022 was .003 deaths per 100 million miles traveled, compared to 0.57 for cars and trucks.
Imagine if those statistics were reversed. What types of investigations would be underway? Would airports be closed pending safety assurances?
Now, turn the question around. Why aren’t we more concerned about highway deaths? Is it because we feel more in control when we’re driving? Is it because we’ve just learned to accept death on the highways? Or do we realize that even those much higher accident statistics for driving are still low?
A variety of injury attorney websites identify distracted driving — texting, eating, talking on a phone or trying to multitask behind the wheel — as a top cause of auto accidents, followed by speeding and drunk or impaired driving. All of these ought to be preventable, but each of them can leave us helpless and vulnerable if other drivers around us are doing them.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates 37 people die each day in crashes related to drunk driving.
Six years have now passed since Utah became the first state in the nation to lower its criminal drunk driving standard to a 0.05 percentage blood alcohol level — the lowest in the last, but certainly not the lowest in the world.
No other state has followed Utah’s lead, even though several have proposed it. In North Carolina, lawmakers may soon be considering a bill to do so.
Utah’s decision did nothing to hurt tourism or alcohol sales, despite dire warnings at the time. But, while accident statistics show mixed results, especially in a state with a rapidly growing population, there is evidence that about 1 in 5 drinkers in Utah now plan alternative means of transportation if they intend to drink any amount. This culture shift is a huge victory for people concerned about drunk driving.
Can more be done? Most likely. Could a nationwide .05 rate do more to change the culture? Undoubtedly. Also, the eventual development of fully autonomous cars would do much to make things safer, as well.
In the meantime, don’t be confused about the safest modes of travel.
After the crash in Washington, and smaller ones in Philadelphia and Alaska, an AP-NORC poll found 64% of Americans said traveling by plane is very or somewhat safe. That was down from 71% a year earlier. I could find no poll yet that measured this after the accident in Toronto, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it dipped a bit more.
That’s understandable, at least if psychologists are right about how we react to media reports and videos.
However, other than the chance my elbow will get whacked by the food cart coming down the aisle, I have no doubt what the most dangerous part of my upcoming trip will be.
Looking at logic and statistics, however, the answer isn’t close. Stay airborne.
Although it’s been a relatively bad month or so for flying, it’s always a dicey time for driving. Sixty-seven people died in a collision between a commercial airliner and a military helicopter on Jan. 29. Exactly no one died Monday when an airliner overturned while landing in Toronto. Ditto in a collision of a Japan Airlines flight and a Delta plane on the ground in Seattle earlier this month.
By contrast, the U.S. Department of Transportation reports that in 2022, the last year for which complete statistics are available, 42,514 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the United States.
You have to go back to 2001 to find a commercial air disaster that killed more than the 67 who died last month in Washington, according to a comprehensive chart on Wikipedia. Meanwhile, using simple math, about 3,543 people on average died in car accidents every month in 2022.
But when you put it in a different light, the contrasts become starker. USAfacts.org reports that 796 people died in air travel over the U.S. between 2002 and 2022, including small aircraft accidents. By contrast, 552,009 died in passenger car and truck accidents during that time.
The fatality rate for air travel in 2022 was .003 deaths per 100 million miles traveled, compared to 0.57 for cars and trucks.
Imagine if those statistics were reversed. What types of investigations would be underway? Would airports be closed pending safety assurances?
Now, turn the question around. Why aren’t we more concerned about highway deaths? Is it because we feel more in control when we’re driving? Is it because we’ve just learned to accept death on the highways? Or do we realize that even those much higher accident statistics for driving are still low?
A variety of injury attorney websites identify distracted driving — texting, eating, talking on a phone or trying to multitask behind the wheel — as a top cause of auto accidents, followed by speeding and drunk or impaired driving. All of these ought to be preventable, but each of them can leave us helpless and vulnerable if other drivers around us are doing them.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates 37 people die each day in crashes related to drunk driving.
Six years have now passed since Utah became the first state in the nation to lower its criminal drunk driving standard to a 0.05 percentage blood alcohol level — the lowest in the last, but certainly not the lowest in the world.
No other state has followed Utah’s lead, even though several have proposed it. In North Carolina, lawmakers may soon be considering a bill to do so.
Utah’s decision did nothing to hurt tourism or alcohol sales, despite dire warnings at the time. But, while accident statistics show mixed results, especially in a state with a rapidly growing population, there is evidence that about 1 in 5 drinkers in Utah now plan alternative means of transportation if they intend to drink any amount. This culture shift is a huge victory for people concerned about drunk driving.
Can more be done? Most likely. Could a nationwide .05 rate do more to change the culture? Undoubtedly. Also, the eventual development of fully autonomous cars would do much to make things safer, as well.
In the meantime, don’t be confused about the safest modes of travel.
After the crash in Washington, and smaller ones in Philadelphia and Alaska, an AP-NORC poll found 64% of Americans said traveling by plane is very or somewhat safe. That was down from 71% a year earlier. I could find no poll yet that measured this after the accident in Toronto, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it dipped a bit more.
That’s understandable, at least if psychologists are right about how we react to media reports and videos.
However, other than the chance my elbow will get whacked by the food cart coming down the aisle, I have no doubt what the most dangerous part of my upcoming trip will be.
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